Bitcoin Set for Worst Month Since 2022 Bear Market

Bitcoin displayed price volatility in April, losing some of its early gains. Today, the price declined below major resistance levels due to sustained selling pressure. 

According to reports, Bitcoin is set to record 12% losses in April. If this happens, it will become its weakest performance in over a year. Based on the current performance and the industry trend, there are five essential things to note for Bitcoin. 

Bitcoin will Likely to Post Worst Performance Since November 2022

While Bitcoin’s price faces volatility, some market observers are now watching the critical support levels. Interestingly, some optimists believe Bitcoin is range trading and will recover soon to resume the bull run. 

However, BTC’s weekly close did not offer encouragement as it continues to decline. Bitcoin’s price at 6:01 a.m. EST is $61.680, representing a 1.4% decline in the last 24 hours. Also, it has shed 5.7% this week as the sellers continue to exert pressure.  

BTC’s current price range has been at its lowest since April 2019. According to a crypto trader, Skew, the selling pressure is caused by U.S. automated trading algorithms. 

$BTC 1W
I do see the potential for longer crab between $67K – $58K till proper flow supported breakout

Previous cycle 2018 – 2021
Price had actually an echo bubble with backtested 1M close as resistance

then 21 – 28days consolidation prior to breaching ATHs & parabolic run… https://t.co/8d3b3qNnb2 pic.twitter.com/gCh5EVHt3C

— Skew Δ (@52kskew) April 28, 2024

Further, Skew identified the potential for a longer crab (sideways trend) for Bitcoin between $67,000 and $58,000. He believes Bitcoin will continue in this range till there is a proper flow of liquidity to support a breakout.  

But for now, Skew believes Bitcoin’s performance is still quite impressive. However, if Bitcoin’s price drops below $58,000, things will go awry. Such a drop will signal a bear market.  

Besides Skew, data from CoinGlass also suggests that this will be Bitcoin’s worst performance since the November 2022 bear market.        

Financial Market Data Could influence BTC’s price

Macroeconomic events often affect most financial markets, including the crypto market. The upcoming interest rate decision by the United States Federal Reserve will be vital for Bitcoin.

While no significant changes are expected, lower rates may come much later than predicted at the beginning of the year. According to the financial market watchdog, The Kobeissi Letter, key events are coming up this week. 

Key Events This Week (Happy Fed Week!):

1. CB Consumer Confidence data – Tuesday

2. JOLTs Jobs data – Wednesday

3. Fed Interest Rate Decision – Wednesday

4. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data – Friday

5. April Jobs Report data – Friday

6. ~20% of S&P 500 companies report…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 28, 2024

Some key events are the C.B. Consumer Confidence data, the Fed Interest Rate Decision, and the April Jobs Report data. So, the outlook might not be so bad for Bitcoin and other assets, except these reports reveal dire economic circumstances. 

Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs Ready to Launch, A Factor Worth Considering

Bitcoin adoption has continued to expand in the Asian region. Hong Kong is preparing to launch spot Bitcoin ETFs, which will likely draw interest and boost BTC’s price.      

According to trader Mister Crypto, Hong Kong’s spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are extremely bullish and a big deal. This is because the Asian market has more users than the U.S. and European markets.  

So, some optimists believe that the Hong Kong ETFs could positively influence Bitcoin’s price and support a rally. 

As Bitcoin hovers above the $61,000 price level, the $60,000 – $58,000 support level is now fundamental. A decline below this level could lead to lower lows for Bitcoin due to selling pressure.  

According to analyst Philip Swift, Bitcoin’s price is fast approaching the short-term holder’s realized price. This level typically acts as support in bull markets. However, Swift questioned if the support would hold this time. 

The short-term holders are investors who hold BTC for a maximum of 155 days, making them speculative investors. 

Secondly, analyst Daan Crypto Trades noted that the market has continued consolidating. On his chart, he revealed that the bull market support is catching up with the price of BTC. 

#Bitcoin As we keep consolidating, the bull market support band is catching up to price. This should offer good support if we were to touch it.

Back in 2021 when we broke the 2017 all time high, we ended up not needing it but took off before the band could catch up. pic.twitter.com/sbrsRIsMno

— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) April 28, 2024

According to the analyst, if this support catches up with the price, it will help sustain BTC and prevent further decline. 

Retail Investors Embracing Bitcoin 

Despite the market pullback, small investors are returning to it. According to Glassnode analyst Checkmate on X, wallets holding less than 100 BTC are increasing their exposure.  

This data is based on his chart from Checkonchain, which shows the 30-day rolling wallet balances positive on April 8.  

These wallet addresses are accumulating 12,200 BTC tokens per month. However, Checkmate believes that Bitcoin retail holders will sell at the first sign of a correction. As such, their influence on BTC price cannot be ascertained clearly.  

These factors combined will be critical to Bitcoin’s price action in the coming weeks and will influence the prices of altcoins.