February 27, 2024

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

2024 Oscars Predictions:
Best Supporting Actor

“Poor Things” – Willem Dafoe
Searchlight Pictures

Weekly Commentary (Updated Dec 11, 2023): I’m curious to see what will come of the double supporting actor nominations for “Poor Things” at the Golden Globes. Veteran stars (and overdue) Willem Dafoe and Mark Ruffalo are in the thick of a competitive race where LAFCA runner-up Ryan Gosling (“Barbie“) and NYFCC winner Charles Melton (“May December”) are early favorites. Not to mention Robert Downey Jr (“Oppenheimer”) and Robert DeNiro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), who are well-regarded among their peers.

Unsure if Dafoe and Ruffalo can make it under the same narrative. And if they do, can either of them win? My early guess is one has to be there without the other for that to happen, but that didn’t stop Sam Rockwell from beating his “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” co-star Woody Harrelson (and coincidentally Dafoe for “The Florida Project”).

We still have Sterling K. Brown (“American Fiction”) and Dominic Sessa (“The Holdovers”) in the mix as well.

Depending on your definition of “comedy,” there have been a few supporting actor winners in the past few years — Ke Huy Quan for “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (2022), Brad Pitt for “Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood” (2019) and Mahershala Ali for “Green Book” (2018) are the last three victors. For a “straight” comic performance, similar to the one Gosling delivers, you might have to travel back to Kevin Kline for “A Fish Called Wanda” (1988). The uphill climb is evident but not impossible. It depends on which five make the lineup.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 15, 2023. The preliminary shortlist for eight categories is from Dec. 14-18, with the results announcement dropping on Dec. 21. The Oscar nomination period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominees named on Jan. 23.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.

***The list below is not final and will be updated throughout the awards season.


And the Predicted Nominees Are:


  1. Willem Dafoe — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
  2. Sterling K. Brown — “American Fiction” (MGM)
  3. Dominic Sessa — “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
  4. Holt McCallany — “The Iron Claw” (A24)
  5. Glenn Howerton — “BlackBerry” (IFC Films)

Other Top-Tier Possibilities


  1. Jesse Plemons – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
  2. Peter Sarsgaard — “Memory” (Ketchup Entertainment)
  3. John Magaro – “Past Lives” (A24)
  4. Paul Mescal — “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)
  5. Chris Messina – “Air” (Amazon Studios)
  6. Jamie Bell — “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)
  7. Colman Domingo – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
  8. Matt Damon — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
  9. Ben Affleck – “Air” (Amazon Studios)
  10. Corey Hawkins — “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)

Also In Contention


  1. Jacob Elordi – “Saltburn” (Amazon Studios)
  2. Jeremy Allen White – “The Iron Claw” (A24)
  3. Will Ferrell – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
  4. Jon Bernthal — “Origin” (Neon)
  5. Jeffrey Wright – “Rustin” (Netflix)
  6. Harris Dickinson – “The Iron Claw” (A24)
  7. Rhys Ifans — “Nyad” (Netflix)
  8. Richard E. Grant – “Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
  9. Raúl Castillo — “Cassandro” (Amazon MGM Studios)
  10. Stanley Simons — “The Iron Claw” (A24)

Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**


** This official list is incomplete, with all release dates not yet confirmed and subject to change.

2022 category winner: Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

Oscars Predictions Categories

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

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