June 23, 2024

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

2023 Oscars Predictions:
Best Original Screenplay

Barbie
Everett Collection

Weekly Commentary (Updated Sept. 28, 2023): 20th Century Studios has revealed to Variety exclusively that “The Bikeriders” from writer-director Jeff Nichols will be campaigned for best original screenplay for the upcoming awards season, despite being inspired by the 1968 photo and interview book of the same name.

The film tells a fictional story inspired by the Midwestern motorcycle club in the book’s photos, seen through its members’ lives over a decade. The WGA has classified it as an original work rather than adapted. Despite most of his six previous films having garnered critical acclaim, Nichols has yet to be recognized.

The studio is already pushing the film, with a screening on Thursday night in Los Angeles, where Nichols will be in attendance for a post-Q&A.

When voting for the crucial WGA Awards in January, WGA members will find him listed among the original screenplay candidates. Still, when it comes to the Academy, we won’t know the official answer until ballots are open to members.

As most people know, an original work creates an entirely new narrative, while an adapted one transforms pre-existing material into a screenplay. The news comes after Variety exclusively reported Greta Gerwig’s smash hit “Barbie,” which she co-wrote with Noah Baumbach, is also being campaigned for original screenplay despite the official writing credit citing “based on ‘Barbie’ by Mattel” — a doll and toy company, rather than a published work.

Will Nichols make the cut? We’ll see.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18, 2023. Preliminary shortlist voting will begin on Dec. 18, with the results announced on Dec. 21. The voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominations announcement on Jan. 23.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.

  • Listed writer credits are not final. The Academy ultimately determines the official nominees.

And the Predicted Nominees Are:


  1. Barbie” (Warner Bros.) — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach
  2. The Holdovers” (Focus Features) — David Hemingson
  3. Past Lives” (A24) — Celine Song
  4. Maestro” (Netflix) — Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer
  5. May December” (Netflix) — Samy Burch, Alex Mechanik

Next in Line


  1. The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios) — Jeff Nichols
  2. The Iron Claw” (A24) — Sean Durkin
  3. Air” (Amazon Studios) — Alex Convery
  4. Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon) — Justin Triet, Arthur Harari
  5. Dream Scenario” (A24) — Kristoffer Borgli

Other Top-Tier Possibilities


  1. Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Emerald Fennell
  2. Fair Play” (Netflix) — Chloe Domont
  3. Asteroid City” (Focus Features) — Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
  4. Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) — David Scarpa
  5. Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures) — Jennifer Lee, Allison Moore
  6. Rustin” (Netflix) — Julian Breece, Dustin Lance Black
  7. Fallen Leaves” (Mubi) — Aki Kaurismäki
  8. Fingernails” (Apple Original Films) — Christos Nikou
  9. Elemental” (Pixar) — Peter Sohn, John Hoberg, Kat Likkel, Brenda Hsueh
  10. Monica” (IFC Films) — Andrea Pallaoro, Orlando Tirado

Also In Contention


  1. She Came to Me” (Vertical Entertainment) — Rebecca Miller
  2. Flora and Son” (Apple Original Films) — John Carney
  3. A Little Prayer” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Angus MacLachlan
  4. A Thousand and One” (Focus Features) — A.V. Rockwell
  5. Cassandro” (Amazon Studios) — Roger Ross Williams, David Teague
  6. Somewhere in Queens” (Roadside Attractions) — Ray Romano, Mark Stegemann
  7. Migration” (Illumination) — Mike White
  8. Joy Ride” (Lionsgate) — Cherry Chevapravatdumrong, Teresa Hsiao, Adele Lim
  9. Shadya” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Noora Niasari
  10. Memory” (No U.S. Distribution) — Michel Franco

All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**


  • The Creator” (20th Century Studios) — Gareth Edwards, Chris Weitz
  • Beau is Afraid” (A24) — Ari Aster
  • Dream Scenario” (A24) — Kristoffer Borgli
  • The Iron Claw” (A24) — Sean Durkin
  • Past Lives” (A24) — Celine Song
  • Showing Up” (A24) — Jon Raymond, Kelly Reichardt
  • You Hurt My Feelings” (A24) — Nicole Holofcener
  • Cassandro” (Amazon Studios) — Roger Ross Williams, David Teague
  • Saltburn” (Amazon Studios) — Emerald Fennell
  • Fingernails” (Apple Original Films) — Christos Nikou
  • Flora and Son” (Apple Original Films) — John Carney
  • Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) — David Scarpa
  • Suzume” (Crunchyroll) — Makoto Shinkai
  • Asteroid City” (Focus Features) — Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
  • The Holdovers” (Focus Features) — David Hemingson
  • A Thousand and One” (Focus Features) — A.V. Rockwell
  • The Boy and the Heron” (GKids/Toho) — Hayao Miyazaki
  • Monica” (IFC Films) — Andrea Pallaoro, Orlando Tirado
  • Migration” (Illumination) — Mike White
  • Joy Ride” (Lionsgate) — Cherry Chevapravatdumrong, Teresa Hsiao, Adele Lim
  • Master Gardener” (Magnolia Pictures) — Paul Schrader
  • Bottoms” (MGM/Orion) — Emma Seligman, Rachel Sennott
  • Fallen Leaves” (Mubi) — Aki Kaurismäki
  • Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon) — Justin Triet, Arthur Harari
  • La Chimera” (Neon) — Alice Rohrwacher
  • Perfect Days” (Neon) — Takuma Takasaki, Wim Wenders
  • El Conde” (Netflix) — Pablo Larraín, Guillermo Calderón
  • Fair Play” (Netflix) — Chloe Domont
  • May December” (Netflix) — Samy Burch, Alex Mechanik
  • Maestro” (Netflix) — Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer
  • Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire” (Netflix) — Zack Snyder, Kurt Johnstad, Shay Hatten
  • Rustin” (Netflix) — Julian Breece, Dustin Lance Black
  • Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures) — Zach Baylon, Frank E. Flowers, Terence Winter **
  • Elemental” (Pixar) — Peter Sohn, John Hoberg, Kat Likkel, Brenda Hsueh
  • Moving On” (Roadside Attractions) — Paul Weitz
  • Somewhere in Queens” (Roadside Attractions) — Ray Romano, Mark Stegemann
  • Chevalier” (Searchlight Pictures) — Stefani Robinson
  • Magazine Dreams” (Searchlight Pictures) — Elijah Bynum **
  • A Little Prayer” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Angus MacLachlan
  • The Miracle Club” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Jimmy Smallhorne, Timothy Prager, Joshua D. Maurer
  • Persian Version” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Maryam Keshavarz
  • Shadya” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Noora Niasari
  • The Teachers Lounge” (Sony Pictures Classics) — İlker Çatak, Johannes Duncker
  • M3gan” (Universal Pictures) — Akela Cooper, James Wan
  • She Came to Me” (Vertical Entertainment) — Rebecca Miller
  • Barbie” (Warner Bros.) — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach **
  • Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures) — Jennifer Lee, Allison Moore

2022 category winner: “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) — Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert

** indicates an unconfirmed release date in 2023 or could be campaigned or moved into another category. All release dates are subject to change.

Oscars Predictions Categories

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

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