May 24, 2024

The Golden Globes have plenty of movies to sift through and consider for its upcoming 81st annual awards ceremony. With “Killers of the Flower Moon” and “Maestro” on the drama side, and “The Color Purple” and “Poor Things” in comedy, alongside the buzzy summer double-feature “Barbenheimer,” a star-studded event is surely awaiting viewers.

The Globes have entered a new era with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association now disbanded, with many of its problematic members expelled, the annual awards season staple has traditionally been second to the Oscars in terms of TV ratings. Under new leadership, the group is looking to reclaim its glory days of fun and memorable affairs.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

One of the most impactful changes is the expansion of films and performances that will be recognized. According to the eligibility and rules guide, each of the categories will have six nominees, an increase from five, except for one of the two newly created categories, best cinematic and box office achievement category (for movies that have grossed more than $150 million, with at least $100 million in the U.S.), which will name eight.

In the drama races, movies helmed by some of cinema’s most beloved masters are likely to square off: Christopher Nolan for “Oppenheimer” and Martin Scorsese for “Killers of the Flower Moon,” who will also be among the favorites for best director.

The 300+ membership will also have the chance to embrace timely films surrounding lost love (Celine Song’s “Past Lives”) and racial relations (Ava DuVernay’s “Origin”). The comedy landscape is more competitive than its drama counterparts, especially compared to previous years. At the top of the heap is Greta Gerwig’s billion dollar smash “Barbie” , likely to to be one of the most nominated movies this year. The WB sensation seems destined to face off against Searchlight’s “Poor Things” and Focus Features’ “The Holdovers.”

Amazon MGM have a pair of dramedies that could factor into the race significantly – Ben Affleck’s Nike sneaker hit “Air” and Cord Jefferson’s TIFF Audience Award winner, “American Fiction.”

The nom expansion will also provide more runway for acting contenders trying to secure Academy love.

The lead acting races are overflowing. In lead drama actor, megastar like Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”), Leonardo DiCaprio (“Flower Moon”) and Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”) will battle with notables from films that hope not to have a sole acting mention such as Colman Domingo (“Rustin”) and Andrew Scott (“All of Us Strangers”).

Comedy actor has two frontrunners leading the charge. “American Fiction’s” Jeffrey Wright ready to take on “The Holdovers’” Paul Giamatti, a former winner of the category for “Barney’s Version.” They’ll have A-listers in the mix like Nicolas Cage “(“Dream Scenario”) and Matt Damon (“Air”).

Both actress races have talent, beauty and style that will be popular among voters. Lily Gladstone (“Flower Moon”) will take on Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”) and Natalie Portman (“May December”), with possibilities for Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (“Origin”) and Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”).

Warner Bros.

The chuckles felt from the likes of Margot Robbie (“Barbie”) and Emma Stone (“Poor Things”) seem locked and loaded for attention (at least Globes-wise). Even though “The Color Purple” one of the last contenders to drop, that shouldn’t stop Fantasia Barrino nabbing a spot, according to early buzz.

Obviously, this is all open to debate and it’s still fairly early in the awards season. So, anything can happen.

Noteworthy: as many may know from following me on social media over the past decade, I have a strong disdain for ties at awards shows. Anybody remember the three best actress (drama) winners in 1988, Jodie Foster, Shirley MacLaine and Sigourney Weaver? Well, the chances of that happening again are nearly impossible after the group input new measures when voting for winners.

It reads: “In the case of a tie in any category, the winner will be the one of the tied nominees on the final ballot that had the most votes on the nomination ballot. In the unlikely event that after considering the nomination ballots there is still a tie in any category, two winners will be announced for that category.”

I’m claiming this rule just for me.

Read the first projections for the Golden Globes film categories. TV predictions will follow.

** Not all the genre classification, or eligibility for films have been confirmed. Those have been marked accordingly with two asterisks.

Oscars Predictions Categories


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