May 28, 2024

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:


Weekly Commentary (Updated Sept. 28, 2023): Here are some of the buzzy bits from the past week that factored into the latest polls and prediction chart projections:

Ahead of its New York Film Festival bow, Netflix invited a small group of journalists and friends of the Bernstein family to the Academy Museum to watch Bradley Cooper’s Leonard Bernstein biopic “Maestro.” The famed composer’s daughters, Jamie Bernstein and Nina Maria Felicia Bernstein, introduced the screening, followed by an intimate discussion with some of the filmmaking team, including Oscar-nominated producer Kristie Macosko Krieger (“The Fabelmans”) and three-time nominated sound mixer Steven Morrow (“La La Land,” “A Star is Born” and “Ford v. Ferrari”).

Rodrigo Prieto, the Oscar-nominated cinematographer, will be honored with the 2023 Árbol de la Vida – lifetime achievement award at the 13th edition of the GuadaLAjara Film Festival on Nov. 1. This year, he has two films in the race — Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie” and Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon.”

John Carney’s musical-comedy “Flora and Son,” acquired by Apple Original Films after its premiere at the Sundance Film Festival, will submit “High Life,” composed by Carney, Gary Clark and Eve Hewson, for best original song.

This week’s Awards Circuit Column focuses on movies about inequality and fighting big corporations, having a possible advantage in the awards race following the Hollywood strikes.

What’s coming in the next week? The New York Film Festival starts on Friday with Todd Haynes’ “May December” starring Natalie Portman, Julianne Moore and Charles Melton. After its premiere at the Cannes Film Festival in May, Netflix acquired the film. Variety revealed exclusively the two leading ladies will compete in separate acting categories.

Also screening at NYFF are Errol Morris’ “The Pigeon Tunnel” from Apple and the luscious live action short “Strange Way of Life” from auteur director Pedro Almodovar and Sony Pictures Classics. The film stars triple Emmy nominee Pedro Pascal and four-time Oscar nominee Ethan Hawke.

After holding the premiere of “Killers of the Flower Moon” this week in New York City, Apple is also inviting members of all guilds to a movie screening of the harrowing drama on Saturday, Sept. 30. I’ll be moderating a Q&A conversation immediately following with writer, producer and director Scorsese, in addition to Thelma Schoonmaker (editor), Ellen Lewis (casting), Rene Haynes (Indigenous casting), Jacqueline West (costume designer), Julie O’Keefe (Osage clothing consultant) and Mark Ulano (production sound mixer).

Most significant chart gains: “Maestro” going from six to 10 projected nominations, including best picture, where it currently sits in the No. 6 slot.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10, 2024.

The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18, 2023. Preliminary shortlist voting will begin on Dec. 18, with the results announced on Dec. 21. The voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominations announcement on Jan. 23.


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