May 24, 2024

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:


2024 Oscars Predictions:
Best Achievement in Visual Effects


Weekly Commentary (Updated Sept. 26, 2023): With “Dune Part Two” moving out of the year, the race has considerably opened up for a few movies to break through the field.

Tepid box offices don’t scare branch members away like others; they aim to reward impressive technical achievements. Warner Bros.’ “Blue Beetle” boasts gorgeous action sequences, dazzling superhero effects, and battles. Ángel Manuel Soto’s DC Studios project received solid reviews and is worthy of recognition.

The “Dune” sequel shift could also benefit 20th Century Studios’ sci-fi epic “The Creator” by Gareth Edwards. The helmer of “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” and “Godzilla” constructs a world that will appeal to voters with its space elements and robot designs.

Everett Collection

A movie like Warner Bros’ “Oppenheimer” by Christopher Nolan utilizes practical effects, but that didn’t stop the Academy from awarding Damien Chazelle’s moon landing biopic “First Man.”

We are also past due on animated features making a run in this category. Sony Pictures’ “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” is more than worthy of consideration, given its vibrant set pieces and action beats. Only two animated flicks have been nominated in this race previously — “The Nightmare Before Christmas” (1993) and “Kubo and the Two Strings” (2016).

Even though James Mangold’s “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” received an apathetic critical response and box office, the de-aging effects of its star, Harrison Ford, could be appetizing for the branch to embrace.

The Visual Effects Branch has always been friendly to blockbusters and consumer-facing franchises shown with past winners such as “Avatar: The Way of Water” (2022), “Dune” (2021), “Tenet” (2020), “Blade Runner 2049” (2017) and “The Jungle Book” (2016).

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18, 2023. Preliminary shortlist voting will begin on Dec. 18, with the results announced on Dec. 21. The voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominations announcement on Jan. 23.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.

***The list below is not final and will be updated throughout the awards season.

And the Predicted Nominees Are:

  1. The Creator” (20th Century Studios) – To be announced
  2. The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures) — Tim Burke, Andy Kind, Patrick Ledda (visual effects supervisor), Steve Warner (special effects supervisor)
  3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios) — Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams (visual effects supervisor), Dan Sudick (special effects supervisor)
  4. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures) — Michael Lasker, Alan Hawkins, Bret St. Clair, Pav Grochola
  5. Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.) — To be announced

Next in Line

  1. Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
  2. Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
  3. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts” (Paramount Pictures)
  4. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” (Walt Disney Pictures)
  5. The Marvels” (Marvel Studios)

Other Top-Tier Possibilities

  1. Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
  2. Rebel Moon” (Netflix)
  3. Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
  4. Cocaine Bear” (Universal Pictures)
  5. Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
  6. The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
  7. Wonka” (Warner Bros.)
  8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures)
  9. Ferrari” (Neon)
  10. John Wick Chapter 4” (Lionsgate)

Also In Contention

  1. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quanumania” (Marvel Studios)
  2. M3gan” (Universal Pictures)
  3. Dream Scenario” (A24)
  4. The Flash” (Warner Bros.)
  5. Elemental” (Pixar)
  6. The Super Mario Bros. Movie” (Illumination)
  7. The Zone of Interest” (A24)
  8. Fingernails” (Apple Original Films)
  9. The Exorcist: Believer” (Universal Pictures)
  10. A Haunting in Venice” (20th Century Studios)

All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**

2022 category winner: “Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios) — Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett

** indicates an unconfirmed release date in 2023 or could campaign in the lead or supporting categories. All release dates are subject to change.

Oscars Predictions Categories


About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

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